15 January 2026

The Evolution of Russian and Chinese Air Power Threats

Justin Bronk

In 2020, RUSI published papers on the potential threats posed to Western forces by Russian and Chinese combat air capabilities and ground-based air defence (GBAD) systems. Since these studies were published, both Russian and Chinese air power capabilities have evolved significantly.

The aim of this Insights Paper is not to present a comprehensive analysis of the various types, weapons systems and tactics operated by the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) and People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF). Instead, it provides a succinct outline of the ways in which the threat posed to Western air power capabilities by Russian and Chinese forces respectively has changed over the five years since 2020. As a starting point, readers are invited to read the two RUSI papers from 2020, mentioned in the paragraph above, for an overview of the primary aircraft types and GBAD systems operated by each nation.

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