10 February 2026

Putin Cannot Afford a Peace Deal Now.

Mick Ryan

It has been another fascinating week to be an observer of international and military affairs.

Ukraine has agreed to an energy truce, which sees them holding off on attacking Russian energy infrastructure. But this has not halted Russian attacks on other civilian infrastructure including a civil train service in Kharkiv. Concurrently, peace negotiations are occurring, although they show little progress.

In the Pacific, China continues its campaign of aggression against Taiwan in the skies, at sea and in the information domain. At the same time, Taiwan launched its first indigenous submarine and announced changes to its integration of professional and conscripted soldiers. In my Ukraine update this week, I have opted for a single, longer op-ed that is focused on why Putin is unlikely to agree to a peace deal in the short term, and therefore why the current round of talks are unlikely to gain much traction. I hope it proves informative.

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