29 March 2026

War on Iran: Tactical Success, Strategic Risk?

Bernard Siman

Today Turkey, not Iran, is Israel’s main strategic rival. If we agree on this, as strategists, the brilliance of the spectacular tactical display of military might, intelligence, and technology in the war against Iran that commenced a few days ago, starts to diffuse into many hazy rays, as they beam through the unforgiving crystal ball of foresight.

Iran is akin to the “Sick man of Europe” of the 19th Century

A historic analogy may be illustrative. The “Sick Man of Europe”, the Ottoman Empire, was kept alive and standing by the Great Powers because they realised that, if it collapsed, they could neither contain the impact on the European balance of power, nor could they brook Russian advances into Ottoman territory, thus upsetting that balance leading to war.

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