Andrew McGregor
Iran’s marginalized ethnic minorities, who often endure state suppression, may view current U.S. and Israeli military operations as an opportunity to seize greater autonomy. Four minority groups—the Kurds, Balochs, Lurs, and Ahwazi Arabs—maintain armed factions. Additionally, the exiled Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MEK) aggressively pursues violent regime change, losing 100 fighters in a clash with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on February 25.
Armed factions are most likely to hesitate before any action due to unclear American objectives, fears of brutal regime retaliation if abandoned, and the fact that ethnic Persian opposition figures often share the regime’s hostile view of these minority groups as separatist threats.
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