Ilan Berman
In the conversation about Iran’s future, it’s the dog that isn’t barking. More than two months into the US conflict with the Islamic Republic, Operation Epic Fury didn’t deliver the regime change in Tehran that many initially anticipated. While there are growing signs that the country has transitioned into something that, despite theocratic window-dressing, closely resembles a military dictatorship, it’s also apparent that Washington hasn’t achieved a fundamental change in its behavior—at least not yet.
All eyes are now understandably on the sporadic diplomatic contacts between Washington and Tehran, as well as the punishing economic effects of the US blockade, which is already reshaping Iran’s oil sector. But the internal political balance in Iran may prove even more decisive, as it will help determine whether the regime’s remaining leadership can maintain its grip on power.
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