China’s Strategic Plan for Space Superiority

The Diplomat | Namrata Goswami

China is redefining space superiority by prioritizing orbital logistics, satellite replenishment, and deep-space maneuver capabilities over static satellite counts. The upcoming Chang'e 7 lunar mission targets the Lunar South Pole to survey water ice resources, laying operational groundwork for the proposed International Lunar Research Station by 2036. This lunar infrastructure framework transforms space logistics into sustained strategic dominance.

Operational maneuverability is expanding rapidly. China's planned 2026 planetary defense test against asteroid 2015 XF261 uses a 580-kilogram impactor traveling at 9.3 km/s to demonstrate dual-use deep-space targeting precision. Additionally, the January 2025 launch of Shijian 25 validates on-orbit refueling, allowing spacecraft to reposition dynamically without deducting from mission lifespans. Institutionally, the 2024 structural reorganization replacing the PLA Strategic Support Force with the specialized PLA Aerospace Force streamlines central military command under the Central Military Commission, directly integrating orbital maneuver logistics into broader Chinese joint operational systems warfare doctrine.

Comment

China's dual-use planetary defense impactor test against asteroid 2015 XF261 and deep-space tracking infrastructure forces a fundamental strategic trade-off between international space-co-operation legitimacy and defensive counterspace posture. Participating in Near-Earth Object defense provides Beijing with scientific prestige under global planetary protection initiatives while simultaneously validating high-velocity kinetic intercept guidance algorithms against deep-space targets.

This dual capability compels rival space powers to treat civilian deep-space tracking arrays as active counterspace architecture. Consequently, tracking networks established for deep-space science, such as the China Deep Space Exploration Laboratory, double as early-warning nodes capable of monitoring military payloads beyond geosynchronous orbit.

Strategic Question for Discussion

Which factor presents a greater operational challenge for Western space domain awareness — the dual-use tracking network managed by the China Deep Space Exploration Laboratory, or the rapid orbital maneuvering enabled by platforms like Shijian 25?

The primary operational challenge stems from the China Deep Space Exploration Laboratory's persistent deep-space tracking architecture, which expands continuous monitoring beyond geosynchronous orbit where traditional surveillance networks suffer coverage blind spots. While maneuvering spacecraft introduce localized tactical ambiguity, long-range tracking infrastructure provides the foundational telemetry needed to orchestrate theater-wide counterspace operations.

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