Interview – Kishore Mahbubani

E-International Relations | Kishore Mahbubani

Southeast Asian geopolitical alignments are shifting toward China, as a study by Yuen Foon Khong and Joseph Liow indicates that five of ten ASEAN nations now lean toward Beijing, while only the Philippines remains explicitly aligned with Washington. Over the past 15 years, nine ASEAN member states have drifted closer to China due to geographic proximity and economic opportunities, despite lingering concerns regarding Beijing's regional power projection.

Concurrently, Washington's security commitments face headwinds from tariff implementations, diplomatic friction over human rights, and regional backlash against United States policy in Gaza. Beyond Southeast Asia, former Singaporean diplomat Kishore Mahbubani emphasizes that rising Global South influence and non-Western foundational principles are challenging longstanding Western dominance in international governance. As global GDP balances realign among the United States, China, Germany, Japan, and India, institutional reforms within the United Nations Security Council, International Monetary Fund, and World Bank are essential to prevent structural fragmentation and preserve global adherence to international law.

Comment

The accelerating diplomatic shift within Southeast Asian capitals toward Beijing directly weakens the foundational premise of Western security architecture across the Indo-Pacific. Multilateral mechanisms like the Five Power Defence Arrangements face declining political utility when member state alignments bifurcate under regional trade pressures. This divergence demonstrates that legacy maritime access guarantees can no longer isolate Southeast Asian defense planning from broader economic dependencies. Consequently, traditional multilateral balancing acts in the South China Sea risk institutional paralysis as intra-bloc consensus fractures.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If Southeast Asian security preferences continue pivoting toward Beijing's economic sphere, how will existing multilateral mechanisms like the Five Power Defence Arrangements maintain operational relevance without triggering institutional paralysis?

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