How Cascading Crises Are Testing Saudi Arabia’s Foundations

Eurasia Review | Murray Hunter

Saudi Arabia faced severe military and economic pressure in September 2026 following rapid Houthi advances along Yemen's Red Sea coast. The insurgent group seized the strategic ports of Mocha and Dhubab, alongside Perim and the Hanish Islands, effectively restricting shipping through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. This maritime blockade immediately threatened regional energy security.

Concurrently, drone strikes disabled the critical 1,200-kilometre East-West Petroline to Yanbu, severely constraining Saudi crude export capacity. To mitigate these vulnerabilities, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly sought intelligence assistance from Israel via U.S. Central Command. However, this outreach risks undermining the kingdom's religious legitimacy as Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques. Furthermore, the August 2026 Makkah Joint Defense Agreement with Turkey and Pakistan has failed to deliver active military support. These compounding external shocks now threaten to inflame domestic vulnerabilities, including royal succession disputes, fiscal strain, and unrest among volatile border tribes in Najran, Jazan, and Asir.

Comment

The failure of the Makkah Joint Defense Agreement to trigger active military intervention from Turkey or Pakistan exposes the structural fragility of Riyadh's alternative security architectures. By relying on transactional bilateral pacts rather than integrated command structures, Saudi Arabia remains highly vulnerable to Houthi interdictions along the Bab al-Mandeb. This security deficit forces a reluctant dependence on U.S. Central Command to coordinate intelligence sharing, even as Washington seeks to limit its direct kinetic exposure in the Red Sea.

This operational gap will likely accelerate Saudi Arabia's quiet integration into regional air and missile defence frameworks facilitated by the United States. Consequently, the Royal Saudi Air Defense Forces are forced to rely on shared radar feeds and tactical data links with non-traditional partners to secure critical infrastructure like the Yanbu terminal. This dependency binds Riyadh's domestic security directly to the operational viability of CENTCOM's regional integration initiatives.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If the Makkah Joint Defense Agreement remains inactive during active Houthi strikes, does the pact retain any deterrent value against regional adversaries, or does it collapse into a purely symbolic diplomatic gesture?

The continued inaction of Turkey and Pakistan suggests the Makkah Joint Defense Agreement functions primarily as a political instrument rather than a functional collective security pact. Without pre-delegated command structures or joint operational planning, the treaty is unlikely to deter asymmetric threats like Houthi drone strikes. Consequently, the trajectory indicates Riyadh will continue to rely on bilateral U.S. security guarantees to address immediate kinetic vulnerabilities.

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