MAGA Is Making the World Safe for Corruption

The Atlantic | Anne Applebaum

The Trump administration unexpectedly imposed 50 per cent tariffs on Brazilian products and sanctioned Supreme Court justices in the summer of 2025 to influence the country's internal politics. This unprecedented deployment of economic coercion targeted Justice Alexandre de Moraes for prosecuting former President Jair Bolsonaro and clashing with billionaire donor Elon Musk.

Historically, Washington reserved such punitive measures for dictators and international criminals rather than friendly democratic partners. The sudden policy shift reflects a broader alignment between far-right ideologues and private interests, transforming American foreign policy into a tool for private gain and antidemocratic reaction. This is transactional foreign policy. The administration's actions directly support Bolsonaro, who faced trial for plotting a 2022 coup that culminated in his supporters storming Brazil's Parliament. By leveraging financial and travel sanctions to punish foreign judicial officials, the United States risks permanently fracturing regional alliances.

Comment

The weaponisation of unilateral economic penalties against Brazilian judicial officials marks a structural shift in how Washington manages its security partnerships in the Western Hemisphere. By targeting members of the Supremo Tribunal Federal, the United States directly undermines the institutional trust required to maintain the 1947 Rio Pact. This transactional approach signals to Brasilia that treaty commitments are secondary to the domestic political alignments of the ruling American administration.

Consequently, the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is likely to accelerate its diplomatic hedging, seeking alternative security and trade arrangements to mitigate American political volatility. This institutional decoupling will weaken the collective deterrence framework of the Organisation of American States. Ultimately, the erosion of these traditional security architectures will allow Chinese state-owned enterprises to expand their influence across the Southern Cone.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If Washington continues to condition bilateral relations on the domestic political alignment of its partners, how does the collective security framework of the 1947 Rio Pact adapt when unilateral economic coercion is directed at its signatory members?

The pattern suggests that the 1947 Rio Pact will increasingly exist only on paper as South American nations seek bilateral security arrangements that bypass Washington. My assessment is that Brazil and its regional neighbours will turn toward minilateral groupings and non-Western partners to offset American political volatility. This trajectory indicates a transition from a unified hemispheric security architecture to a fragmented, multipolar regional order.

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