27 September 2026

‘The rules have changed’: has Russia begun to order assassinations on US soil?

The Guardian | Daniel Boffey, Andrew Roth

The US Department of Justice unsealed indictments against five individuals allegedly linked to Russian intelligence for conspiring to conduct murders in the United States, challenging long-held assumptions regarding dissidents' safety on American soil. The plot involved a $40,000 contract to eliminate an unnamed dissident in Washington, DC, utilizing a network that included Federal Security Service officers and Latin American nationals.

Former intelligence officials noted that this apparent abandonment of Cold War operating guidelines signals a shift in the Kremlin's calculation regarding international political ramifications and sanctions. Analysts suggest the public attribution serves as a counterintelligence measure amid broader geopolitical frictions, including reported Russian support for Iran. Consequently, exiled dissidents gathering at the Washington Dialogue conference expressed acute concern that traditional geographic protections have eroded, forcing heightened security postures across North America and Europe.

Comment

Unsealed indictments targeting Federal Security Service personnel expose a calculated shift from traditional intelligence collection to direct transnational kinetic operations within Western capitals. The reliance on non-Russian proxies, including Cuban and Venezuelan operatives recruited via encrypted messaging, mirrors the operational architecture documented in the 2020 surveillance of former defector Aleksandr Poteyev.

Public disclosure of such networks functions as an overt counterintelligence measure designed to disrupt tradecraft and signal heightened vigilance rather than merely initiating criminal proceedings.

Strategic Question for Discussion
How does the reliance on multi-national proxy networks by the Federal Security Service alter the counterintelligence calculus for FBI field offices monitoring Russian operatives inside the United States?
The pattern suggests that relying on third-country nationals complicates traditional pattern-of-life analysis and asset attribution. This shift points to a deliberate tradecraft adaptation designed to maintain plausible deniability while executing kinetic operations abroad.
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