The West is losing two wars at once

UnHerd | Wolfgang Munchau

Houthi militants have seized the strategic Yemeni port of Mokha and Perim Island in the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, threatening maritime transit where 400,000 barrels of Saudi oil flow daily. This escalation pushed Brent crude to $100 per barrel, delivering windfall revenues to energy-exporter Russia as its ground forces advance further across the Donbas region.

Elevated oil prices directly bolster Moscow's war economy while exacerbating Western inflationary pressures and depleting European heating gas reserves. Simultaneously, Western forces face severe air defense interceptor shortages and structural defense industrial bottlenecks. Western supply chains are overstretched. Russia now produces 3.4 million large howitzer shells annually, substantially outstripping the European Union's projected capacity of 2 million. Meanwhile, the British Army is reduced to 75,000 troops. Despite claims that the EU economy is nine to 10 times larger than Russia's, purchasing power parities and military output reveal a widening operational deficit for Western-backed efforts across both fronts.

Comment

State-directed expansion across Rostec manufacturing facilities has converted Russian industrial capacity into a continuous material engine for high-intensity attrition warfare. By prioritizing standardized 152mm ammunition lines over legacy peacetime efficiency metrics, Moscow established structural defense outputs that operate largely decoupled from global commercial market dynamics. Western defense industrial bases, built around lean just-in-time logistics and commercial subcontractor networks, struggle to scale manufacturing for prolonged operational consumption. This structural imbalance exposes how peacetime procurement paradigms fail during sustained industrial conflicts.

The resulting shortfall in 155mm munition stockpiles forces NATO planners to accept increased operational risk along the eastern flank while rationing artillery support in active combat sectors. Tactical reliance shifts toward uncrewed aerial systems, which cannot fully substitute for heavy high-explosive fires against fortified defensive positions. Consequently, the persistent 152mm manufacturing surge from Rostec forces NATO members into emergency multi-billion Euro procurement commitments for European 155mm production infrastructure.

Strategic Question for Discussion

Which carries more weight in long-term attrition warfare — Rostec's centralized production capacity for 152mm ordnance or NATO's overall economic superiority — and at what point does manufacturing throughput eclipse monetary scale?

The available evidence points toward military manufacturing capacity operating as the decisive variable in high-intensity artillery combat, rather than gross GDP measures. While NATO possesses far greater aggregate economic wealth, Rostec's dedicated defense production lines deliver immediate combat material that cash reserves cannot instantly manifest on the battlefield. My assessment is that output velocity will continue to outweigh financial scale until Western nations complete structural reinvestments in defense manufacturing infrastructure.

Share your assessment in the comments below.

To read in details click here