29 September 2026

Understanding Russia’s Role in Latin America

Rand | Elina Treyger, Samantha Perez Davila

Russia maintains active engagement across Latin America and the Caribbean despite facing sweeping international isolation and stretched resources following its February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Deepening diplomatic and strategic ties with key regional partners help Moscow marshal Global South support for its anti-Western vision and unlawful territorial claims.

This regional activism demonstrates that ongoing military commitments do not preclude Moscow from projecting influence far from home. Opportunistic diplomatic maneuvers across the Western Hemisphere concurrently challenge U.S. security interests. Washington must consequently evaluate these regional activities holistically alongside concurrent Chinese and Iranian influence. Comprehensive threat assessments must also account for direct connections between hemispheric developments and domestic U.S. security. Policymakers face compounding strategic friction as Moscow leverages bilateral partnerships to counter Western pressure.

Comment

Moscow's deepening diplomatic footprint in Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua relies heavily on legacy intelligence-sharing architecture and revived bilateral credit agreements rather than substantial economic capital. These engagements afford the Kremlin strategic leverage points within the Western Hemisphere without requiring the deployment of permanent combat formations or capital-intensive military basing.

Strategic Question for Discussion
What structural vulnerabilities in the Caribbean basin allow traditional intelligence partners like Cuba and Venezuela to absorb increased Russian diplomatic outreach without triggering acute regional deterrence responses?
The pattern suggests that longstanding economic fragility and shared animosity toward Washington create fertile ground for external great-power patronage. This dynamic allows regional actors to diversify diplomatic alignment and secure external political backing while maintaining domestic control.
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