When A Paper Tiger Crumbles: The Inevitable Collapse of Bangladesh

Substack | Ashok Awasthi

Post-Hasina Bangladesh faces severe economic instability following efforts by its new leadership to de-link from India by repudiating long-standing power and cargo facilities. An analysis by Viprabuddhi highlights how the nation’s heavy historical over-reliance on the garment sector leaves its fragile economy highly vulnerable as cross-border diplomatic ties rapidly deteriorate.

Lapsing bilateral agreements like the historic Ganga water treaty and attempts to pivot toward Pakistan and China threaten long-term regional stability. Recent Adani Power supply disruptions and constrained access to Indian transit ports for cheap cotton imports further compound Dhaka's compounding economic quagmire. Domestic volatility remains high. The rising influence of virulent Islamist political factions is actively alienating religious minorities and deterring critical private investment. Furthermore, tentative moves to grant operational airfields near the strategic Siliguri Corridor to Beijing risk triggering severe geopolitical backlash from New Delhi. Without rebuilding crucial economic and diplomatic bridges with India, Bangladesh's prospects for sustainable economic recovery remain entirely remote.

Comment

Dhaka’s consideration of granting Chinese access to airfields near the Siliguri Corridor directly threatens India’s narrowest geographic vulnerability. The 22-kilometre-wide land strip connects New Delhi to its eight northeastern states, making any foreign military presence in surrounding Bangladeshi territory an immediate operational hazard. Basing or infrastructure access extended to the People's Liberation Army Air Force along this axis severely degrades the defence radius maintained by Eastern Air Command at Hasimara and Tezpur.

This posture will force the Indian Air Force to permanently deploy additional Su-30MKI and Rafale squadrons to forward airbases in West Bengal and Assam. Consequently, New Delhi's operational capacity along the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh faces immediate reallocation pressures to secure the Eastern Theater.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If Beijing secures airfield access near the Siliguri Corridor, will Eastern Air Command be forced to permanently reallocate air superiority assets from the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh, or can existing ground-based air defence networks at Hasimara absorb the threat?

The trajectory indicates that ground-based assets alone cannot mitigate a potential air threat originating so close to the Siliguri Corridor. Eastern Air Command would almost certainly require dedicated, persistent Combat Air Patrols over northern West Bengal. My assessment is that this necessity would inevitably dilute the IAF's high-altitude fighter concentration currently maintained along the western sector of the Line of Actual Control.

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