America Should Play Peacemaker in Ukraine

RealClearWorld | Lyle Goldstein

Persistent inflation, rising energy prices and a war in the Persian Gulf have soured American voters ahead of next month’s midterm elections. Lyle Goldstein of Defense Priorities calls on Washington to seek peace in both the Gulf and Ukraine, since he sees runaway inflation as predating Donald Trump’s war on Iran.

He dates the worst month for US inflation in 40 years to June 2022 and says sanctions on Russia hurt America and its allies, citing Japanese rice prices and European energy costs. In his view, Joe Biden failed to reckon with economic warfare cutting both ways. He calls the Strait of Hormuz one of the primary drivers of current prices and the new diesel deal with Russia an unlikely fix. Both countries are exhausted, he says. He urges reviving the framework floated at last year’s Anchorage summit, under which Kyiv would cede the Donbas region and accept armed neutrality.

Comment

The argument links two wars to inflation, but the transmission runs through energy markets, which respond to export volumes more than to diplomacy. Russia kept selling oil after 2022, largely rerouted to Asian buyers, so a settlement could change sanctions and shipping costs more than physical supply. The Strait of Hormuz, by contrast, is a physical chokepoint for seaborne oil, and the source calls it a main present driver of prices. The two wars therefore differ in kind: one is a sanctions and rerouting problem, the other a transit problem.

The diesel deal with Russia that the source describes shows the trade-off: Washington is seeking price relief from the state it is pressing over Ukraine. Price relief and pressure on Moscow pull in opposite directions. A settlement that lifted sanctions would extend that bargain, though the effect on prices would depend on whether Russian volumes can offset a disrupted Gulf.

The author concedes that pandemic-era policy had a heavy economic fallout, which leaves the war’s share of the June 2022 inflation peak unquantified. Crediting a settlement with price relief requires that share. The Anchorage summit framework he cites is the only vehicle for a settlement that the source names.

Strategic Question for Discussion

Which carries more weight in American fuel prices, a Ukraine settlement that lifts pressure on Russian exports or stable transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and what would tip the balance?

My assessment is that Hormuz weighs more in the near term, because it constrains physical supply while a settlement would mainly change sanctions and costs. The pattern suggests the two effects would reinforce each other only if Russian volumes grew while Gulf supply stayed tight. The source treats the wars as one problem, yet the price channels appear to work differently.

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