16 October 2026

Drones, Missiles, and the U.S. Munitions Shortage

Cnas | Stacie A. Pettyjohn, Bradley Martin, Bryan Clark

The United States military faces severe munitions shortages following high-intensity conflicts, forcing defense planners to reassess the operational utility of low-cost, long-range one-way attack drones known as affordable mass. Drones like the $35,000 Low-cost Unmanned Combat Attack System, reverse-engineered from Iranian Shahed-136 designs, offer rapid producibility and volume that traditional precision munitions lack.

However, these systems face severe limitations: prohibitive total volumes for specific desired effects, insufficient range to strike deep within mainland territory, and an inability to penetrate hardened or buried installations. Consequently, military planners must integrate affordable mass alongside existing high-end weapons rather than treating them as total replacements. This complementary integration aims to generate crucial munitions depth, overwhelm regional air defense networks, and introduce complex tactical dilemmas for peer adversaries during protracted multi-domain campaigns.

Comment

The battlefield debut of the Low-cost Unmanned Combat Attack System during Operation Epic Fury highlights a reluctant doctrinal pivot toward commercially derived attrition models within the United States military. While these systems provide necessary volume and scale, their lack of range and penetrative power against hardened targets exposes the persistent friction between mass and lethality in extended maritime operational theaters.

Strategic Question for Discussion
How can the Department of War reconcile the operational demand for high-volume munitions with the strict range and payload limitations inherent in systems like the Low-cost Unmanned Combat Attack System during extended maritime campaigns?
The available evidence suggests that low-cost munitions will function primarily as auxiliary saturating elements rather than independent strike solutions. This trajectory indicates that force planners must carefully balance industrial manufacturing priorities against the enduring requirement for penetrating, long-range capabilities.
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