How China Quietly Became a Submarine Powerhouse

National Interest | Harrison Kass

China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy is rapidly modernizing its submarine force of 60 to 70 active vessels, narrowing the long-standing capability gap with the United States Navy in the Indo-Pacific. While historically reliant on noisy Soviet-derived designs, Beijing's undersea fleet now includes six Jin-class nuclear ballistic missile submarines and six Shang-class nuclear attack submarines alongside over fifty diesel-electric hulls.

Early indigenous programs faced severe acoustic and propulsion limitations during the Cold War. However, recent acquisitions of Russian Kilo-class boats and indigenous development of Type 039A/B Yuan-class submarines featuring air-independent propulsion significantly enhanced regional stealth and endurance in littoral waters. Next-generation Type 095 attack and Type 096 ballistic missile submarines are currently under construction to integrate advanced quieting, sonar, and long-range missiles. US subsea dominance is eroding. Consequently, American naval forces can no longer presume total undersea superiority near China's coastline, shifting regional deterrence.

Comment

The integration of closed-cycle Stirling engine air-independent propulsion into Type 039A Yuan-class attack submarines fundamentally alters acoustic detection geometries within shallow shelf waters. By eliminating the necessity to snorkel for battery replenishment, these conventional hulls minimize thermal and radar signatures against airborne maritime patrol aircraft like the P-8A Poseidon. This capability shifts regional anti-submarine warfare from active wide-area sweeping toward localized, high-density sensor barriers.

Consequently, shallow littoral chokepoints along the First Island Chain become significantly more hazardous for surface combatants operating without continuous low-frequency active sonar coverage. The resulting sensor saturation forces defensive screens surrounding US Navy carrier strike groups to expand their acoustic perimeter, burning endurance on screening escorts like Arleigh Burke-class destroyers.

Strategic Question for Discussion

Which factor poses a greater tactical limit for anti-submarine screens in the First Island Chain — the acoustic concealment of Type 039A Yuan-class AIP submarines or the endurance limits of screening Arleigh Burke-class destroyers running active sonar?

The available evidence points toward acoustic concealment as the primary operational bottleneck, as Stirling-engine AIP allows Type 039A Yuan-class submarines to lurk passively in complex littoral reverberation environments almost indefinitely. While Arleigh Burke-class destroyers can cycle sonar operations, attempting to isolate ultra-quiet conventional hulls in noisy shallow waters rapidly exhausts active dipping sonar and sonobuoy inventories. Consequently, quiet submarine propulsion degrades wide-area theater surveillance long before escort ships reach their physical sustainment limits.

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