Ukraine Claws Back Land in the Donbas, Thwarting a Russian Push

The New York Times | Marc Santora, Josh Holder

Ukrainian forces executing Operation Vivaldi have reclaimed dozens of square miles of territory in northern Donbas, successfully disrupting Russian efforts to encircle key fortress cities across eastern Ukraine. Kyiv reorganized its southern defensive lines to halt relentless Russian mechanized assaults, stopping Moscow from advancing toward major urban hubs like Sloviansk and Pokrovsk.

Ground operations have stalled significantly throughout 2026. Data from the Finland-based research group Black Bird Group reveals that September 2026 marked Russia's lowest net territorial gain in Ukraine since June 2023. Western intelligence assessments indicate that Russian forces have gained only marginally more territory than they lost over the course of the year. While Moscow relies on heavy missile barrages against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure to compensate for sluggish infantry progress, Kyiv's counterattacks demonstrate renewed operational resilience. The failure to secure rapid encirclements undermines Russian President Vladimir Putin's declaration that capturing the Donbas remains inevitable.

Comment

Kyiv's counter-offensive under Operation Vivaldi demonstrates how decentralised command structures enable Ukrainian brigades to exploit overextended Russian logistics lines across the Donbas. Defensive reorganisation around Sloviansk relies on elastic defense-in-depth rather than rigid positional holds, absorbing localised mechanised surges before Moscow can establish operational momentum.

This adaptation pairs real-time drone reconnaissance with rapid counter-battery artillery, neutralising the massed armoured thrusts typical of Russian offensive doctrine. By funneling Russian formations into pre-sighted kill zones along the Lyman-Sloviansk axis, Ukrainian commanders enforce severe attrition while preserving frontline force cohesion.

Strategic Question for Discussion

Which factor will prove more decisive along the Lyman-Sloviansk axis — Ukraine's ability to sustain decentralised counter-battery fires under Operation Vivaldi, or Russia's capacity to absorb heavy attrition while maintaining continuous infantry pressure?

The pattern of engagements suggests that Ukrainian artillery integration and rapid target acquisition under Operation Vivaldi currently outweigh raw Russian mass. However, as winter conditions set in across the Donbas, sustaining ammunition expenditure and sensor networks against dense electronic warfare will prove critical. The available evidence points toward a prolonged operational stalemate along the Lyman-Sloviansk axis unless Moscow can break through Kyiv's secondary fortification lines.

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