A Recipe for Disaster in Taiwan

Foreign Affairs | Rebecca Lissner, Mira Rapp-Hooper

Chinese military modernization and diplomatic pressure campaigns against Taiwan risk a major great-power crisis if Beijing misjudges declining U.S. political and public support. The artificial intelligence boom and extensive semiconductor manufacturing make Taiwan indispensable to the global economy, rendering a Chinese blockade or quarantine economically catastrophic for the United States and the broader international system.

However, recent U.S. policy debates, a July 2026 Chicago Council on Global Affairs survey showing diminished public appetite for military intervention, and force readiness strains from Middle East conflicts complicate Washington deterrence posture. Despite these vulnerabilities, any aggressive action by Beijing would force a muscular American response due to the severe costs of economic inaction. American leaders must immediately update their deterrence strategy to counter non-invasion coercion before a potential window of maximum danger opens in late 2028.

Comment

Beijing relies on non-invasion coercion strategies such as maritime quarantines and customs enforcement to bypass direct military engagement while steadily eroding Taipei jurisdiction. These administrative measures exploit the legal and logistical ambiguity surrounding maritime blockades, testing whether external powers will intervene against law enforcement actions rather than outright acts of war.

Washington faces a severe munitions deficit compounded by recent Middle East engagements, where inventories of Patriot and THAAD interceptors have been heavily depleted. Consequently, executing a sustained maritime escort or resupply operation for Taiwan would place existing naval logistics under immediate operational strain without adequate reserve stockpiles.

Strategic Question for Discussion

How does the depletion of Patriot and THAAD interceptor stocks affect the feasibility of executing a maritime resupply operation during a quarantine enforced by the China Coast Guard?

The depletion of air defense interceptors limits the U.S. military capacity to sustain prolonged maritime escort missions under threat from land-based missile batteries. This capability gap suggests that any deterrence framework relying on open sea lanes is increasingly vulnerable to attrition.

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