The Vexing Arithmetic of Israeli Coalition-Building

Foreign Policy | Steven A. Cook

Israeli President Isaac Herzog tasked Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot with forming a governing coalition following election results that left Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc with 53 parliament seats, the opposition change bloc with 48, and Arab-led parties with 19. Securing a majority in the 120-seat Knesset presents Eisenkot with severe strategic trade-offs between political stability and ideological compromise.

Coalition options include aligning with Arab-led parties like Ra'am and the Joint List for a 67-seat majority, though strict conditions on state identity and Hamas create friction. Alternatively, inviting ultra-Orthodox parties like United Torah Judaism risks voter backlash over military exemptions. A minority government remains inherently precarious. A national unity rotation deal with Netanyahu offers structural stability by bypassing far-right factions. Yet this pathway forces Eisenkot to break core campaign pledges and risk political betrayal. President Herzog faces an arduous negotiation process to prevent another destructive election deadlock.

Comment

Constructing a parliamentary majority in the Knesset forces a fundamental trade-off between political coalition longevity and policy coherence. Aligning with Ra'am or the Joint List provides the necessary arithmetic to reach a 61-seat threshold, but introduces structural fragility whenever security legislation or West Bank jurisdictional measures require parliamentary approval. As seen during the collapse of the 2021 Bennett-Lapid coalition, incorporating anti-Zionist or non-Zionist factions creates inescapable friction during cross-border security escalations.

This vulnerability incentivises coalition leaders to pursue a national unity arrangement with Benjamin Netanyahu to secure legislative stability. However, accepting a prime ministerial rotation sacrifices campaign credibility and risks repeating the rapid collapse of the 2020 Gantz-Netanyahu rotation agreement. Ultimately, choosing governance stability through a unity cabinet compromises the change bloc's core mandate of institutional reform within the Knesset.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If Gadi Eisenkot enters a rotation arrangement similar to the 2020 Gantz-Netanyahu pact, which mechanism offers a viable safeguard against premature coalition collapse, and why?

My assessment is that statutory enforcement mechanisms offer little protection when political incentives for dissolution align against a junior partner in the Knesset. The breakdown of the 2020 Gantz-Netanyahu pact demonstrated that budget deadlock provides a predictable mechanism to trigger snap elections without formally breaching rotation terms. Consequently, structural safeguards remain ineffective unless accompanied by binding legislative concessions prior to cabinet formation.

Share your assessment in the comments below.

Read the original article