ASEAN: Strategic Center of Gravity in US–China Rivalry

Asia Sentinel  |  Khanh Vu Duc

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit to Manila for the ASEAN Regional Forum highlights the intensifying geopolitical competition between Washington and Beijing over Southeast Asia's strategic alignment. While the United States relies on traditional security alliances along the first island chain, China leverages its massive economic dominance to prevent the bloc from forming a unified balancing coalition.

This diplomatic friction forces regional states to adopt distinct hedging strategies to preserve their sovereign decision-making space. Vietnam maintains its strict "Four Nos" defense policy while modernizing its maritime capabilities, Indonesia utilizes its demographic weight to champion ASEAN centrality, and Singapore positions itself as a pragmatic economic bridge. Ultimately, the long-term balance of power in the Indo-Pacific will not be decided by military deterrence alone, but by which superpower can offer the most resilient economic partnerships, digital infrastructure, and institutional trust to these non-aligned nations.

Comment

India’s delivery of BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles to Manila in April 2024 represents a shift toward tangible security capacity-building. This export directly strengthens the Philippines’ coastal defence posture against Chinese maritime incursions in the West Philippine Sea. For New Delhi, sustaining such defence exports under the Act East policy is vital to maintaining a multipolar Indo-Pacific. However, India must expand these bilateral security partnerships to counter Beijing's deep-seated economic leverage across the wider ASEAN bloc.

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