China plans to hit an asteroid with a Mach 26 projectile in planet defence test

South China Morning Post | Ling Xin

China is planning a highly ambitious planetary defence mission to strike the near-Earth asteroid 2015 XF261 with a hypervelocity projectile before 2030. The spacecraft will impact the 30-metre target at nine kilometres per second, or Mach 26, attempting to directly alter its orbit relative to Earth and demonstrate end-to-end deflection capabilities.

Led by the China National Space Administration, China’s first planetary defence mission represents a significant escalation in complexity compared to NASA's previous Dart demonstration, which only altered an asteroid's orbit around another body. The mission architecture utilizes a co-launched impactor and observer spacecraft, with the latter performing a Venus gravity assist to rendezvous with the target. This observer will release a probe to record the collision in real time and monitor subsequent structural changes. To succeed, the impactor must autonomously lock onto the faint rock without real-time ground control during its final approach.

Comment

Deep-space kinetic interception capabilities directly mirror the autonomous tracking algorithms required for exo-atmospheric anti-satellite operations. The guidance systems tested on asteroid 2015 XF261 share technological lineage with China's Dong Neng-3 midcourse interceptor. Perfecting autonomous terminal homing at hypervelocity speeds enhances Beijing's counterspace capabilities against high-orbit military satellites. This dual-use crossover complicates international efforts to establish norms under the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space.

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