Israel's war with Iran, launched in February 2026 with Operation Epic Fury, has created a structural trap, making victory, withdrawal, or sustained conflict impossible. Despite initial tactical successes like 900 strikes, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and damaging 80% of missile facilities, Israel failed to achieve political objectives; Khamenei's son succeeded him, Iran retained enriched uranium, and the IRGC remains intact.
Hezbollah opened a second front, and Iran maintains economic leverage via the Strait of Hormuz. Israel's traditional doctrine of decisive military victories is broken against Iran, which is too distant, populous, diversified, and patient. Continuing is unsustainable due to critically depleted Arrow 2/3 and THAAD interceptor stocks, costing millions per round, and a 15,000-soldier manpower shortfall. Iran can outlast Israel's resources and American patience, as a ceasefire allows Tehran to reconstitute, while withdrawal is politically unacceptable for Israel.
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