Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, 2026, targeting Iran's military capabilities, but Iran responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the U.S. Navy's near-perfect intercept record against Iranian threats, commercial transit collapsed to under a tenth of its pre-conflict volume due to prohibitive war-risk premiums, not a failure of tactical skill.
The article argues that sea control in today's global economy is an actuarial condition, determined by insurance costs and market confidence, rather than physical denial of passage. This asymmetry of doubt allows Iran to sustain uncertainty cheaply, while the U.S. kinetic campaign, by creating and sustaining a war zone, inadvertently reinforces the market's perception of ongoing danger. The author suggests that effective solutions involve government guarantees for war risk, predictable transit windows, achievable military goals, and signaling a clear war-ending path, rather than solely focusing on destroying Iranian launchers.
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