The United States and Iran announced a deal on June 14 to end their recent war, with a signing ceremony set for Friday. Key terms include an immediate ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the US naval blockade, an Iranian pledge against nuclear weapons, and financial payout.
This agreement, despite being framed as a victory, is viewed as a major US foreign policy blunder, failing to dismantle Iran's nuclear program or proxies. The war's lasting legacy is the accelerated collapse of the US-anchored Middle East order, prompting regional powers to question American security guarantees. This has fragmented the region into two coalitions: an Abrahamic one (Israel, UAE, US-aligned) and an Islamic one (Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Egypt, hedging against US dependence). These groups diverge on confronting Iran and Israeli power, exemplified by Saudi Arabia's defense pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan. The UAE, conversely, deepens ties with Israel and the US. Economically, the UAE exited OPEC, impacting Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030. This fragmentation pushes the region into a "G-Zero" state, where China, with no enemies, gains influence via trade and diplomatic mediation, reducing global dependence on the US.
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