Radioactive Measures: Hybrid Threats and Nuclear Risks in Europe and Beyond

International Institute for Strategic Studies  |  Daniel Salisbury

Russia is increasingly exploiting nuclear risks through hybrid activities, including drone incursions around European nuclear bases and targeted cyber operations, to undermine Western public support for Ukraine. These hostile actions leverage public fears of radiation to destabilise European security and weaken the social license required for civil nuclear energy and military deterrence arrangements.

While physical sabotage poses marginal direct risks to infrastructure, the primary battleground remains the information sphere where adversaries actively manipulate safety concerns. Beyond Moscow, state actors like China and North Korea have also directed cyber campaigns against nuclear regulators and operators to influence public attitudes. Consequently, these coordinated campaigns threaten long-term Western energy security by complicating transition plans to civil nuclear power and disrupting allied military basing agreements. Ultimately, mitigating these vulnerabilities requires Western states to actively bolster public resilience against sophisticated nuclear disinformation while simultaneously securing critical infrastructure from persistent, state-sponsored grey-zone threats.

Comment

Hostile drone incursions near HM Naval Base Clyde exploit the inherent psychological sensitivity surrounding the United Kingdom's continuous at-sea deterrent. By pairing these physical grey-zone provocations with targeted digital disinformation, adversaries seek to amplify public anxieties regarding radiation safety and undermine the domestic political consensus required to sustain the Vanguard-class submarine fleet. This integrated approach reveals how information operations leverage localised physical security incidents at Clyde to degrade broader public trust in NATO's collective nuclear deterrence posture.