Is Iran Rebuilding Its Ballistic Missile Production Capacity?

RealClearDefense  |  Behnam Ben Taleblu

Iran is reportedly expanding and restoring its ballistic missile production infrastructure following devastating strikes by the United States and Israel during Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion. Although U.S. and Israeli intelligence degraded above-ground facilities like Khojir and Shahroud during the 12-Day War in 2025 and the 40-Day War in 2026, Iranian forces have mitigated these losses by reopening collapsed subterranean depots and shifting manufacturing into underground "missile cities."

Tehran’s reliance on finite Transporter-Erector Launchers (TELs) and reduced magazine depth caused launch rates to decline during recent conflicts, yet Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials maintain that production capabilities now exceed pre-war usage. To counter this persistent threat, defense planners in Washington and Jerusalem must target supply chains involving foreign procurement from Pyongyang, Beijing, and Moscow while developing weapons specifically engineered to penetrate deep subterranean production nodes. Ultimately, mitigating Iran's evolving missile capabilities requires combining interdiction with a comprehensive long-term strategy targeting regime stability.

Comment

Subterranean adaptation of solid-propellant missile production introduces profound industrial bottlenecks that structural hardening alone cannot resolve. While excavating deep facility networks protects planetary mixers and curing ovens from precision munitions like the GBU-57, underground manufacturing severely constrains volumetric throughput and hazardous material handling. Industrial processes for solid-fuel mixing require specialised environmental controls and massive ventilation shafts to manage volatile chemical off-gassing, creating unavoidable surface signatures that persistent surveillance platforms routinely exploit.

This physical footprint forces a trade-off between structural survivability and output velocity. Expanding subterranean chambers at sites such as Khojir requires prolonged heavy civil engineering, capping monthly assembly rates well below peacetime industrial baseline targets. Consequently, hardened manufacturing nodes retain operational continuity during aerial campaigns but remain unable to offset high attrition rates among mobile transporter-erector launchers.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If underground solid-propellant production at Khojir limits manufacturing throughput, which factor becomes more decisive for long-term deterrence — the survivability of subterranean mixers or the operational replacement rate of mobile TEL platforms?

The operational trajectory indicates that platform attrition, rather than warhead supply, forms the primary systemic vulnerability in subterranean missile operations. While hardened planetary mixers ensure baseline manufacturing continuity, high-tempo targeting of mobile TELs during initial salvo phases rapidly degrades prompt launch capacity long before underground production limits are reached.

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