Why the Gulf states won’t side with America

Engelsberg Ideas | Yoel Guzansky and Jesse R. Weinberg

The United States and Iran have entered a severe military escalation following a reported Iranian drone strike on a US-owned gas vessel at Egypt's Port of Damietta and missile attacks in Jordan, threatening critical maritime trade routes. This surge in violence has triggered heightened concerns among Gulf monarchies and global energy markets.

Historically reliant on the 1980 Carter Doctrine as an external security guarantee, these nations increasingly doubt Washington's ability to shield their infrastructure from Tehran's coercive capabilities. Despite tactical successes during Operation Epic Fury, the Islamic Republic's enduring leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and its proxy networks allow it to dictate regional security terms. Consequently, states like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are accelerating a strategy of multi-alignment and strategic hedging, maintaining security ties with Washington while expanding diplomatic engagement with China and pursuing pragmatic channels with Tehran to mitigate future conflict.

Comment

The erosion of trust in the American security umbrella, accelerated since the unpunished 2019 Abqaiq-Khurais strikes, reveals a fundamental shift in how Gulf monarchies perceive alliance commitments. Rather than relying on traditional bilateral defence pacts with Washington, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are diversifying their security portfolios to include diplomatic engagement with Beijing and Moscow. This multi-alignment strategy demonstrates that security guarantees are no longer viewed as binary choices, but as fluid arrangements designed to mitigate direct exposure to Iranian asymmetric capabilities. Consequently, the traditional leverage of the United States in the Persian Gulf is being replaced by a complex network of transactional partnerships where local states retain operational autonomy.

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