A U.S. Strategy to Secure Geopolitical Advantage on an Uncertain Path to Superintelligence

RAND Corporation | Joel B. Predd, Benjamin Boudreaux, Matt Chessen, Beba Cibralic, Edward Geist, Kamaria Horton, Amanda Kerrigan, William Marcellino, Shanshan Mei, Jared Mondschein, Alvin Moon, Tobias Sytsma

The RAND Corporation recommends that the United States adopt a "Freedom of Action" strategy to preserve its geopolitical advantage and ensure human agency during the transition to artificial superintelligence. This approach prevents Washington from committing prematurely to a single policy path before critical technological and competitive uncertainties are resolved.

Seven archetypal strategies currently dominate the policy debate, ranging from pursuing absolute AI supremacy to co-developing capabilities with rivals or enforcing global development pauses. Five pivotal uncertainties remain unresolved. By maintaining strategic flexibility, policymakers can avoid foreclosing vital options or deferring critical decisions for too long as global competitors respond to shifting technological frontiers. Ultimately, this adaptive framework secures long-term national security interests while actively mitigating existential risks to humanity's survival. It establishes a robust foundation for navigating rapid, unpredictable technological breakthroughs without sacrificing essential sovereign capabilities. This ensures the nation remains prepared for any geopolitical scenario.

Comment

The strategic trade-off inherent in maintaining policy flexibility on superintelligence directly impacts the regulatory momentum established by Executive Order 14110. While hedging against AI capabilities prevents premature commitment to unviable containment strategies, it simultaneously dilutes the immediate enforcement of domestic safety standards under the Department of Commerce. This hesitation risks creating a governance vacuum that commercial developers like OpenAI or Anthropic may exploit to accelerate frontier model training without federal oversight.

A comparable trade-off occurred during the early Cold War, when the Baruch Plan attempted to establish international control over nuclear energy. The failure to balance immediate security guarantees with long-term technological flexibility ultimately accelerated the bilateral arms race between the United States and the Soviet Union.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If the United States prioritises the policy flexibility advocated by the RAND Corporation over the rigid compliance mandates of Executive Order 14110, how will federal agencies maintain credible oversight of private frontier AI development?

The trajectory indicates that prioritising flexibility over Executive Order 14110 will likely force federal agencies to rely on voluntary disclosure agreements with developers like OpenAI. This pattern suggests a shift toward a co-regulatory model, where the state cedes direct enforcement in exchange for real-time technical visibility. Consequently, the government's ability to preemptively mitigate systemic risks will depend heavily on the goodwill of commercial actors.

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