25 September 2026

China’s Continued Control of Rare Earths Looms Over Trump-Xi Meeting

New York Times | Keith Bradsher

China dominates global rare-earth production as President Trump and Xi Jinping prepare to meet to discuss unresolved export restrictions. Manufacturers across the United States, Europe, Japan, and India struggle with constrained supplies of rare-earth metals and magnets essential for cars, wind turbines, semiconductors, and military equipment. Beijing imposed initial export controls in April 2025 on seven kinds of rare earths following U.S.

tariffs, subsequently slowed shipments to a trickle, and scheduled a broader set of curbs to take effect on November 10, alongside sharp shipment reductions to Japan. These restrictions reveal the considerable leverage China holds through its near monopoly on these materials. Little indication exists regarding how these contentious supply chain issues might be resolved during the upcoming high-level summit.

Comment

Export curbs on neodymium, dysprosium, and samarium-cobalt magnets expose the structural vulnerability of Western defence supply chains to Chinese processing monopolies. When Beijing restricted outbound shipments under the Foreign Trade Law, production lines for tactical guided munitions and electric drive systems faced immediate bottlenecks that cannot be bypassed through short-term diversification.

Consequently, reliance on domestic separation facilities remains severely constrained by environmental permitting delays and a lack of heavy rare-earth feedstock. This structural asymmetry ensures that trade negotiations involving the Ministry of Commerce retain coercive leverage over advanced manufacturing sectors globally.

Strategic Question for Discussion
If Chinese processing dominance over critical rare earths remains absolute, does secondary sourcing through allied industrial bases achieve genuine supply security, or merely relocate the vulnerability?
The available evidence points toward the latter outcome. Building secondary separation and magnet-manufacturing capacity abroad bypasses primary export restrictions, but these facilities still depend heavily on raw material feedstock and downstream processing expertise concentrated within Chinese industrial networks.
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