Donald Trump is Politically Bankrupt. Be Very Afraid

Paul Krugman Substack | Paul Krugman

CNN reports that the US military has developed strike plans utilizing the GBU-43/B mother of all bombs against Iranian nuclear sites and energy infrastructure if President Donald Trump orders attacks surrounding the midterm elections. Political scientist Robert Pape argues that imminent electoral losses create a strategic incentive for Trump to gamble for resurrection by initiating strikes to rally his political base.

Facing potential Congressional subpoenas following a midterm defeat, executive decision-making shifts toward extreme risk-taking. Economic research by George Akerlof and Paul Romer models how failing entities shift from high-risk gambles to policy looting. Political survival instincts favor immediate external disruption. Foreign policy has already shifted through Russian diesel purchases, sanctions removal, and intentional degradation of Ukrainian access to Starlink satellite networks. Domestic policy exhibits explicit anti-immigrant actions targeting Somalis. Traditional political logic no longer restrains executive military choices when facing systemic political failure.

Comment

The GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast weapon relies on satellite guidance and palletised air-drop deployment from MC-130 aircraft rather than fast-jet strike platforms. Against hardened Iranian subterranean facilities such as Fordow, a thermobaric blast weapon designed for surface area destruction yields minimal structural penetration compared to specialized penetrators like the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator. Employing surface-burst thermobarics against deeply buried target sets prioritises visible shock effects over functional defeat of underground centrifuge cascades.

The operational mechanism requires non-stealthy transport aircraft to enter contested airspace surrounding Iranian air defence networks. Operating heavy transports within coverage zones of Iranian S-300PMU2 surface-to-air missile batteries demands extensive suppression of enemy air defences. This operational requirement consumes EA-18G Growler electronic warfare sorties merely to secure an MC-130 drop corridor for a single unpowered GBU-43/B munition.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If employment of the unpowered GBU-43/B requires heavy suppression of enemy air defences to clear an MC-130 flight path, which factor dictates targeting feasibility—the defensive density around targets like Fordow or the availability of dedicated electronic warfare escorts?

The available evidence points toward electronic warfare availability as the primary constraint on employing non-stealthy heavy munitions. Coordinating EA-18G Growler suppression flights inside integrated air defence envelopes imposes severe scheduling friction that limits operational flexibility. In a rapid escalation scenario, platform vulnerability over target zones like Fordow outweighs the raw yield advantages of palletised thermobaric weapons.

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