23 October 2026

NATO has a theory of victory – the EU needs one for Russia’s unconventional war on Europe

International Institute for Strategic Studies | Charlie Edwards

NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe General Alexus Grynkewich outlined a military theory of victory in Warsaw on 12 October 2026, prompting demands for a corresponding European Union strategy against ongoing Russian unconventional operations. Europe faces persistent physical sabotage, cyber attacks, and undersea cable disruptions conducted by disposable proxies recruited via social media and cryptocurrency payments.

Although the European Union possesses extensive legal instruments, its response remains slow, highlighted by delayed sanctions and pending counter-drone initiatives. The proposed European framework centers on two primary objectives, pursuing hostile networks through joint investigation teams coordinated by Eurojust and Europol while protecting critical supply chains and essential infrastructure. Enhanced resilience directives and synchronized national laws are necessary to counter state-sponsored sabotage effectively and prevent the degradation of vital services supporting Ukraine.

Comment

Fragmented national jurisdiction creates acute vulnerabilities when state-directed sabotage spans multiple European borders, as demonstrated by the complex legal proceedings in the Eagle S undersea cable case. Harmonising statutory definitions for foreign-funded preparatory acts remains difficult across different member state legal traditions governed by Eurojust and Europol cooperation frameworks.

Strategic Question for Discussion
How do differing national thresholds for criminalising foreign-directed intelligence preparation complicate the deployment of joint investigation teams across Eurojust jurisdictions?
The statutory divergence across member states allows foreign intelligence proxies to exploit jurisdictional gaps before formal attribution occurs. This procedural friction often delays cross-border disruption efforts by months.
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