India After the Liberal Order

Council on Foreign Relations | Manjari Chatterjee Miller

India and the United States face growing divergence in their strategic partnership as Washington increasingly contests the liberal international order it originally constructed. While shared concerns over Chinese expansion initially fostered bilateral defense and economic ties, deep-rooted Indian skepticism toward Western-dominated multilateral institutions has persisted since 1947. Decades of structural diplomatic friction persist.

Recent U.S. shifts toward economic protectionism, tariff regimes, and altered climate policies have upended traditional diplomatic alignment, reinforcing New Delhi’s long-standing preference for strategic autonomy. Defense technology transfers, trade friction, and diverging approaches to global crude markets remain persistent friction points between both nations. Nevertheless, mutual security concerns regarding China continue driving tactical cooperation, alongside emerging collaboration in artificial intelligence, space exploration, and frontier technologies. This evolving bilateral alignment illustrates a broader post-liberal global paradigm defined by transactional, patchwork agreements rather than universal international rules or norms.

Comment

Washington's reliance on bilateral transactionalism over institution-building forces New Delhi to re-evaluate the long-term utility of frameworks like the U.S.-India Peaceful Atomic Energy Cooperation Act. While earlier agreements sought to integrate India into global governance regimes without demanding formal alliance commitments, current U.S. trade tariffs and unilateral policy shifts alter that bargain. This creates a severe strategic trade-off between securing advanced Western technologies and preserving nonalignment.

Downstream, this friction accelerates Indian investments in indigenous defense capabilities under the Make in India initiative rather than co-development ventures dependent on Washington's ITAR export control approvals. Consequently, high-tier military cooperation under the U.S.-India Defense Technology and Trade Initiative risks slowing as New Delhi prioritises sovereign industrial control over foreign integration.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If U.S. export controls like ITAR continue to restrict critical technology access, which factor will dictate Indian procurement decisions — the imperative for fast-tracked high-tech capability or the political requirement for industrial sovereignty under Make in India?

The available evidence points toward New Delhi increasingly prioritising sovereign control over rapid modernisation when foreign export restrictions threaten long-term strategic autonomy. While critical shortfalls in high-end systems may force selective technology purchases from Washington, the overarching trajectory indicates a deliberate shift toward domestic industrial absorption under Make in India. Consequently, future U.S.-India defense cooperation is likely to transition toward narrower, modular technology transfers rather than deep institutional co-development.

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