Trump wants control of South America. If Bolsonaro Jr wins in Brazil, that could become a reality

The Guardian | Steve Bloomfield

Flávio Bolsonaro is running neck-and-neck against leftwing incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil’s presidential election, representing the ultimate prize for US President Donald Trump’s regional influence campaign. A victory for the far-right candidate would solidify a broader conservative shift across Latin America, where seven rightwing leaders have already won office over the past 18 months.

This political realignment stems primarily from domestic anxieties over rampant gang violence and drug trafficking rather than direct Washington meddling. Security populism drives voter preferences. While Lula has resisted US tariff threats and election-integrity investigators, Bolsonaro Jr. plans to align Brazil with Trump’s Shield of the Americas coalition. This 18-state security pact authorizes lethal military force against designated terrorist organisations like the Red Command and First Capital Command, cementing a durable, authoritarian-leaning security architecture across the Western Hemisphere.

Comment

The potential accession of Brazil to the Shield of the Americas coalition under a Flávio Bolsonaro presidency would fundamentally alter the security architecture of the Western Hemisphere. By integrating South America's largest military power into this 18-state pact, the US-led initiative gains the operational depth required to execute coordinated hemispheric campaigns. This alignment shifts the Brazilian Armed Forces' traditional sovereignty-first defense posture toward the collective, militarised counter-cartel doctrine championed by El Salvador's Nayib Bukele. The formal designation of the First Capital Command (PCC) and Red Command as terrorist organisations provides the legal and operational trigger for this integration.

This integration will likely result in the direct deployment of US Southern Command assets alongside Brazilian federal forces in joint interdiction operations. Consequently, the operational focus of the Brazilian Navy will shift from South Atlantic maritime patrol duties to riverine and coastal counter-narcotics missions targeting PCC logistics networks. This reallocation of resources will inevitably degrade Brazil's blue-water naval capabilities, leaving a security vacuum in the strategic waters of the South Atlantic.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If the Brazilian Navy shifts its primary focus to riverine counter-narcotics under the Shield of the Americas framework, how will the resulting security vacuum in the South Atlantic affect maritime security cooperation with West African partners?

The trajectory indicates that a diminished Brazilian naval presence in the South Atlantic will weaken the Zone of Peace and Cooperation of the South Atlantic (ZOPACAS) framework. This shift is likely to force West African nations to rely more heavily on European or Chinese maritime security initiatives to combat piracy in the Gulf of Guinea. Consequently, the geopolitical influence of the Shield of the Americas alliance will remain strictly continental, failing to project stabilising maritime power across the wider Atlantic basin.

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