US President Donald Trump initiated Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026, against Iran, misjudging the regime's response and hoping for a quick military operation to destroy Iran’s missile industry and navy, neutralize its regional proxy network, and prevent nuclear weapon acquisition, alongside an ideological aim for regime change.
This miscalculation led to Iran exporting the conflict regionally with ballistic missiles and drones, disrupting global markets by closing the Strait of Hormuz, thereby re-establishing its leverage. The US and Iran have now agreed to a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to extend an April ceasefire by 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, providing a framework for further negotiations. This MoU faces skepticism from the US intelligence community and Israel due to weak trust and unresolved issues, including Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, nuclear program's future, sanctions relief, frozen assets, and support for regional proxies, particularly regarding Israel–Hezbollah tensions. The MoU's timing offers Trump relief ahead of America’s 250th birthday and November’s US mid-term elections, as public support for the conflict waned and economic concerns dominated.
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