The Lost Art of Coercion

Foreign Affairs  |  Reid Pauly, Matthew Cebul

U.S. President Donald Trump has deployed punitive economic and military threats against at least 20 nations during his second presidential term to coerce immediate concessions on trade, migration, and defense spending. This aggressive unilateral pressure campaign seeks to rapidly force diplomatic resolutions in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip while permanently blocking Iran's nuclear weapons program.

Historically, successful strategic coercion has required states to balance credible threats of punishment with equally credible assurances of compliance. By neglecting these diplomatic assurances and relying on unpredictable, public belligerence, the administration inadvertently signals structural weakness rather than decisive American power. This highly transactional, unilateral approach risks alienating critical security partners, hardening adversary resistance in volatile geopolitical theaters, and severely undermining long-term global deterrence. Ultimately, without a coherent framework that pairs coercive pressure with realistic off-ramps, Washington may find its grand foreign policy ambitions stymied by its own diplomatic inflexibility.

Comment

Successful strategic deterrence requires a clear distinction between offensive posturing and defensive resolve. The 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis demonstrated the absolute necessity of offering credible diplomatic exit ramps. Unilateral economic sanctions without clear compliance incentives usually harden adversary resolve. Modern coalition warfare relies heavily on institutional trust rather than transactional ultimatums.

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