The tragedy of “Westalgia”

European Council on Foreign Relations  |  Mark Leonard

European leaders at the recent NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, accepted an arbitrary 5% defence spending target to appease US President Donald Trump and secure continued American security guarantees. This sycophantic approach, led by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, aims to prevent US troop withdrawals and protect Europe from Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

However, this desperate clinging to past transatlantic dynamics ignores the reality of long-term American retrenchment, which will persist even if a Democrat wins the presidency in January 2029. By treating US commitments as ironclad, European nations continue to free ride on American taxpayers while under-investing in their own industrial bases, technological sovereignty, and energy independence. Instead of spending billions on vanity-driven procurement to flatter Trump, Europe must critically evaluate its capability gaps to prepare for high-intensity conflicts. Only by establishing genuine military self-reliance can European leaders earn the strategic respect of global powers like Russia and Xi Jinping's China.

Comment

European reliance on the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty overlooks the structural shift in American strategic priorities. Washington now prioritises the Indo-Pacific theatre to counter Chinese military expansion. European states must develop independent logistical and command structures to manage regional contingencies. This transition requires deep integration of continental defence industrial bases rather than symbolic spending targets.

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