22 July 2026

Trump's War Won’t Go Away

Comment is Freed  |  Lawrence Freedman

The United States and Iran have resumed active military exchanges over the Strait of Hormuz, establishing a state of mutual denial where neither side can secure operational control. This sudden escalation threatens critical global energy corridors as both nations employ aggressive military and economic tactics to force diplomatic concessions.

The renewed hostilities disrupt the temporary diplomatic respite achieved under the bilateral memorandum of understanding signed on 17 June. Hoping to exploit American domestic anxieties regarding inflation and the upcoming midterm elections, Tehran is betting that Washington will ultimately capitulate to secure peace. Conversely, the US administration is executing waves of air raids and withholding economic benefits to force a more accommodating Iranian posture. This volatile dynamic is further complicated by erratic policy proposals, including a short-lived suggestion by President Donald Trump to levy a 20 percent transit fee on all cargo shipping through the waterway, which the New York Times noted would severely inflate global transport costs.

Comment
Mutual denial in the Strait of Hormuz threatens India's primary sea lines of communication for crude oil imports. Unlike during Operation Earnest Will, modern asymmetric threats from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy employ low-cost drone swarms. Consequently, the Indian Navy must expand independent escort missions like Operation Sankalp to safeguard merchant shipping.

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