Why Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz after decades of holding back

The Conversation | Ben Soodavar

US military forces have struck hundreds of Iranian targets, including the port city of Bandar Abbas, to regain control of the Strait of Hormuz after Iran blocked the waterway. This escalation follows Iranian retaliatory strikes on commercial tankers and US bases across the Gulf, threatening global energy corridors and disrupting international maritime trade.

Historically, Tehran maintained conspicuous restraint and used the threat of closure solely as a diplomatic bargaining tool, even during the 1980s Tanker War when more than 400 vessels were attacked. However, the recent assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent rise of Mojtaba Khamenei have shifted Iran's psychological risk perception, aligning with prospect theory. Operating under a framework of perceived strategic losses, the new regime now views high-risk actions as necessary to recover its political and military deficits. Consequently, continued American retaliatory strikes risk reinforcing this escalatory cycle by deepening the very losses Tehran is gambling to reclaim.

Comment

A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz directly threatens Indian energy security by disrupting over sixty per cent of its crude oil imports. New Delhi must consequently expand its maritime security footprint in the western Indian Ocean. The Indian Navy previously deployed warships under Operation Sankalp to escort Indian-flagged merchant vessels through the Gulf. Securing these vital sea lines of communication will require deeper operational coordination with the US-led Combined Maritime Forces.

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