How US became trapped in ‘dreadful situation’ of its own making over Iran war

South China Morning Post | Tom Hussain

The United States faces a severe strategic setback five months after launching a war against Iran, as Tehran maintains effective control over the Strait of Hormuz to leverage the global economy. Refusing to capitulate under American military pressure, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and affiliated regional militias have expanded strikes against critical energy infrastructure and maritime supply routes across the Red Sea, Suez Canal, and eastern Mediterranean.

This asymmetric campaign exploits the extreme vulnerability of Gulf Cooperation Council members, whose oil export facilities and maritime chokepoints remain exposed to low-cost drone saturation. In response, Saudi Arabia launched joint airstrikes with Washington in Iraq and proposed a multinational maritime coalition to secure the Bab al-Mandab Strait. However, regional energy exporters are increasingly forced to balance collective air defence integration with direct diplomatic channels to Tehran to prevent an open-ended war of attrition.

Comment

The 1956 Suez Crisis demonstrated how major powers risk systemic diplomatic isolation when operational execution fails to secure vital maritime chokepoints. Anglo-French military intervention against Egyptian nationalisation ultimately exposed deep currency vulnerabilities without restoring unimpeded access to the waterway. Present Iranian leverage over the Strait of Hormuz mirrors that structural shift, where asymmetric denial capabilities neutralise superior expeditionary fleets. The political fallout from the 1956 expedition confirms that tactical naval dominance cannot compel economic stability amidst contested littoral chokepoints.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If Iranian maritime denial in the Strait of Hormuz mirrors the operational deadlock of the 1956 Suez Crisis, which factor will dictate the resolution — Western economic tolerance for energy inflation or the willingness of Gulf monarchies to establish independent security arrangements with Tehran?

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