The War China Might Choose: A New Taiwan Option

Foreign Affairs | Eugene Gholz and Kerby Davis

China could enforce a "blockade by fire" against Taiwan by launching targeted ballistic missile strikes against the island’s vital port infrastructure rather than attempting a high-risk invasion or maritime encirclement. Simulations indicate that firing fewer than 500 short-range ballistic missiles over 100 days would reduce Taiwanese imports to 15 percent of peacetime levels.

This strategy allows Beijing to cripple the island’s trade-dependent economy while avoiding direct attacks on third-party vessels, thereby minimizing the risk of military intervention by the United States. Furthermore, restricting the strike campaign to port infrastructure preserves the bulk of the People's Liberation Army missile arsenal for deterrence against outside powers. To counter this threat, Taiwan cannot rely solely on expensive interceptor missiles or reciprocal port strikes against a resilient adversary. Instead, Taipei and its partners must focus on survival strategies, including stockpiling critical supplies, conducting port recovery exercises, and acquiring roll-on, roll-off vessels to sustain maritime logistics during conflict.

Comment

Targeting fixed container cranes with conventional short-range ballistic missiles shifts the burden of maritime denial from offshore interdiction to dockside disruption. Sustaining island resupply under port-degradation conditions hinges on mobile discharge capabilities, specifically ramp-equipped roll-on/roll-off cargo ships. This structural vulnerability exposes how modern containerised supply chains rely heavily on concentrated, highly delicate shore infrastructure. Consequently, civil-maritime adaptation, rather than air-defence saturation, becomes the primary determinant of logistics endurance in a prolonged standoff.

Strategic Question for Discussion

Which carries greater weight when mitigating targeted port infrastructure loss — dispersing maritime cargo to decentralized roll-on/roll-off sites or stockpiling strategic industrial reserves inland before hostilities commence?

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