Midweek Update #21: Iran Is Toying With The USA

Phillips's Newsletter  |  Phillips P. OBrien

The United States military concluded a thirteen-day campaign of kinetic airstrikes against Iranian targets on 23 July 2026, amid growing concerns over depleted American precision munitions stockpiles. This operational pause has exposed critical vulnerabilities in regional deterrence, prompting immediate retaliatory strikes from Tehran and its regional proxy network against allied infrastructure.

Decades of underinvestment in industrial manufacturing capacity have left Western defense supply chains unable to sustain prolonged, high-intensity bombardment campaigns without compromising domestic readiness. Consequently, Iranian forces capitalized on this perceived hesitation by launching Arash one-way attack drones against Sheikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain and Al-Azraq in Jordan. Simultaneously, Houthi militants targeted Saudi Aramco refineries in Jizan and Yanbu, while Iraqi militias struck eastern energy transit pipelines. Although Washington attempted to de-escalate by restricting its retaliatory strikes to proxy positions in Iraq, Tehran's persistent strikes on Jordan signal a calculated effort to lock the Trump administration into a costly war of attrition.

Comment

The deployment of Arash one-way attack drones against Sheikh Isa Air Base exposes the acute vulnerability of forward-deployed Western air defence systems to sustained, low-cost saturation tactics. By forcing the expenditure of expensive interceptors like the MIM-104 Patriot to counter cheap loitering munitions, Tehran is successfully executing an asymmetric depletion strategy. This rapid consumption of interceptor stockpiles directly threatens the sustainability of the United States Central Command's defensive umbrella across the Persian Gulf. Consequently, the logistical strain of replenishing Patriot batteries from North American production lines limits Washington's capacity to defend key regional installations like the Jizan refinery.

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