The magnificent ten: A coalition of the willing to drive the EU’s next enlargement

European Council on Foreign Relations  |  Engjellushe Morina, Gabrielė Valodskaitė

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s July 2026 summit highlighted the urgent need for a concrete European Union enlargement strategy. A proposed 'Team Enlargement' coalition of ten key member states, led by Germany, aims to drive a new accession framework over the next 18 months to integrate Ukraine, Moldova, and the Western Balkans.

This initiative responds to a shifting geopolitical landscape where EU membership is increasingly viewed as an indispensable component of any future Ukrainian peace settlement. However, the bloc faces deep internal divisions over accession models, ranging from gradual integration to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s proposed associate membership. To overcome public skepticism and counter transactional US policies that undermine rule of law conditionality, the proposed ten-nation coalition must establish a strict merit-based framework. By implementing a coordinated four-step timetable through 2027, these member states seek to secure the EU's eastern flank while safeguarding internal cohesion and funding structures.

Comment

The emergence of a Germany-led "Team Enlargement" core bypasses the traditional consensus-driven framework of the European Council, reflecting a shift toward minilateral coalitions to break institutional deadlocks. This sub-grouping risks institutionalising a two-tier Europe, where the "Friends of Western Balkans" and Baltic states operate on divergent security and economic priorities. By prioritising the "Fundamentals" cluster to enforce rule-of-law compliance, this coalition establishes a rigid political barrier that may inadvertently drive candidate states toward alternative security arrangements. Consequently, the dilution of voting rights under the proposed associate membership model threatens to weaken the democratic legitimacy of future EU decision-making bodies.

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