Taliban has brought Afghanistan near collapse as resistance grows

Asia Times  |  Amin Saikal

The Afghan Taliban faces mounting security threats, internal dissension, and severe economic distress five years after returning to power in Kabul. Relations with Islamabad have degraded into open conflict following Pakistani retaliatory airstrikes against Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan safe havens in northeastern provinces like Badakhshan. Broadened border transit closures alongside the termination of USAID assistance have exacerbated severe domestic poverty and inflation across the country.

Although Russia has formally recognized the regime, Western nations and regional neighbors maintain ambiguous diplomatic contact while withholding broad legitimacy. Armed resistance groups and local dissident factions are expanding operations across northern Afghanistan, though they remain structurally fragmented without a unified command hierarchy or national political platform. Meanwhile, Washington continues demanding the return of Bagram Airbase and US$7 billion worth of abandoned military assets. Absent structural governance reforms or consolidated opposition leadership, the regime remains deeply entrenched yet vulnerable to accelerating regional isolation, persistent cross-border skirmishes, and systemic socio-economic collapse.

Comment

The breakdown in relations between Islamabad and Kabul exposes the inherent limits of state-sponsored proxy patronage when a non-state actor transitions into a sovereign governing authority. During two decades of insurgency, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence calculated that supporting the Afghan Taliban would secure strategic depth along its western border. However, the regime's refusal to suppress Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan sanctuary in Badakhshan demonstrates how ideological affinity consistently overrides state-level bilateral commitments.

This divergence creates a permanent structural friction that cross-border air strikes cannot resolve without triggering wider regional instability. Cross-border strikes against TTP safe havens mirror earlier counter-insurgency failures along the Durand Line, where tactical air power failed to offset ideological convergence on the ground. Consequently, Islamabad's reliance on kinetic coercion against the Taliban in Badakhshan reinforces the sanctuary network it previously sought to dismantle.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If cross-border kinetic strikes along the Durand Line fail to disrupt Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan operational nodes in Badakhshan, which mechanisms remain for Islamabad to exercise leverage over the regime in Kabul?

The available evidence points toward economic coercion and unilateral border closures as Islamabad's primary remaining levers short of sustained military escalation. However, as the regime in Kabul diversifies trade access through Central Asian transit routes, Pakistan's commercial leverage over the Afghan Taliban will progressively diminish. My assessment is that this structural shift will force Islamabad to rely increasingly on intelligence-led targeted operations rather than broad diplomatic bargaining along the Durand Line.

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