The Strong Suffer What They Must

Project Syndicate  |  Harold James

Ukraine and Iran are exposing Russia and the United States as paper tigers, upending traditional global power dynamics. These asymmetric confrontations demonstrate that outdated calculations of economic and military size no longer guarantee geopolitical dominance, leaving established superpowers vulnerable to localized resistance and highly motivated regional adversaries seeking to challenge the status quo.

Historically, the international system relied on a rigid hierarchy where material superiority translated directly into coercive leverage. However, the diffusion of low-cost technologies has leveled the playing field, allowing smaller actors to impose disproportionate costs on their larger rivals. Consequently, the Kremlin faces steady internal disintegration following its stalled campaign, while Washington's international standing continues to diminish under shifting political leadership. This erosion of authority allows regional actors to pursue independent foreign policies without fearing decisive superpower intervention. Ultimately, the decline of these traditional giants suggests a transition toward a highly fragmented international system where smaller states wield disproportionate strategic influence.

Comment

The proliferation of low-cost precision systems like the Shahed-136 loitering munition has fundamentally altered the cost-exchange ratio of modern air defence. In Ukraine, these Iranian-designed platforms force the expenditure of scarce, million-dollar Patriot interceptors to defeat thousand-dollar targets. This dynamic illustrates how Tehran's export of drone technology to Russian forces bypasses traditional industrial bottlenecks, neutralising conventional deterrence.

To read in details click here