Eurasia Review Interviews: Dr. ‘Lumpy’ Lumbaca On Cognitive Warfare, AI-Enabled Influence Operations, And The Future Of Military Decision-Making

Eurasia Review  |  Aritra Banerjee

Dr. Jeremiah “Lumpy” Lumbaca, a retired United States Army Special Forces officer, has challenged prevailing military assumptions regarding offensive cognitive warfare by questioning the predictability and controllability of artificial intelligence-enabled influence operations. This skepticism stems from the structural difficulty of measuring cognitive effects and establishing direct causality in complex operational environments.

Historically, information operations and psychological operations budgets within the United States military suffered a 74 percent reduction between 2009 and 2015 due to an inability to prove tactical success. While advanced algorithms can automate personalized content generation at scale, attempting to induce neuroplastic changes in an adversary commander's decision-making process requires unproven clinical assumptions. Consequently, defensive cognitive security measures—such as building institutional resilience, prebunking, and securing trusted communication systems—currently offer a more viable strategic path for special operations forces navigating contested information landscapes in the Indo-Pacific region, where strategic competition remains intense.

Comment

The United States Joint Special Operations University's research into cognitive warfare signals a fundamental shift in irregular warfare doctrine. By targeting neurological processes rather than immediate attitudes, this approach exploits cognitive vulnerabilities through sustained algorithmic curation. However, the structural difficulty of measuring cognitive degradation limits the ability of commanders to validate these effects during active campaigns. Consequently, the doctrine remains constrained by the unpredictable behavioural responses of adversaries experiencing acute information overload.