Victor Davis Hanson: Iran and Trump’s Next Strategy for Endgame

The Daily Signal  |  Victor Davis Hanson

President Donald Trump is executing a transition from kinetic military operations to a long-term containment strategy against the Iranian regime following five months of intermittent conflict. This shift aims to secure critical geopolitical concessions before the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, preventing Tehran from exploiting prolonged conflict to influence domestic American politics.

Historically, the regime has demonstrated a willingness to tolerate severe domestic economic ruin and tens of thousands of casualties to maintain its grip on power. To counter this resilience, the administration's strategy focuses on permanently sealing nuclear sites like Pickaxe Mountain while maintaining strict economic sanctions and asset freezes. Furthermore, the United States intends to secure the Strait of Hormuz by leveraging regional allies, including Israel and the Gulf states, to assume greater patrol responsibilities. By establishing a formal government in exile to foster internal unrest, Washington seeks to degrade Tehran's regional influence without maintaining a permanent military footprint.

Comment

The transition toward an outsourced maritime security model in the Strait of Hormuz represents a significant departure from the decades-old Carter Doctrine. By shifting the primary burden of sea-lane protection to regional partners like the Israeli Air Force and Gulf cooperative frameworks, Washington is attempting to decouple its energy security from direct military intervention. This doctrinal pivot exposes a structural vulnerability, as local partners lack the integrated command structures and sustained logistical reach of the US Fifth Fleet. Consequently, any prolonged disruption by Iranian asymmetric forces will test the limits of regional deterrence without a guaranteed American kinetic backstop.

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