Houthi threat to Red Sea expands with takeover of Mocha, potentially reshaping region - analysis

Jerusalem Post | SETH J. FRANTZMAN

The Houthis have taken Mocha, a key port in Yemen. This puts them in a position to threaten the Bab al-Mandab Strait and disrupt global energy routes. It also gives Iran more room to play. What’s surprising is that the Houthis pulled this off even though they’ve been losing ground elsewhere and are still fighting hard with Saudi-backed government forces.

The Houthis are making the most of Yemen’s broken-up landscape. They can move their men and gear quickly, while the government forces are stuck and slow. The government just can’t keep up. At the same time, Houthi drones and missiles hit Khamis Mushait in Saudi Arabia, injuring 73 people. Pakistan has stepped in to back Riyadh, and their defence minister says a defence pact with Turkey could be put into action if things get worse. President Trump hoped things would calm down after the US midterms, but with this mess at sea, oil prices are likely to stay high.

Comment

The Houthis taking Mocha shows just how limited the Saudi-led coalition is in defending southwestern Arabia. Now that the Houthis have a stretch of the coast, they can hit ships in the Bab al-Mandab Strait and launch drones from inside Yemen. This means places like King Khalid Air Base in Khamis Mushait are under constant threat from different directions. The coalition depends on fixed air defence systems like the Patriot, but these are struggling to keep up with the Houthis’ cheap and frequent attacks.

The Houthis can move their drones and anti-ship missiles safely between Sana’a and the Red Sea. The government forces, on the other hand, are stuck in places like Jawf and Aden. They can’t move their heavy weapons without risking an attack from the sides. There aren’t enough roads between Aden and Mocha, so the Giants Brigades can’t launch a proper counter-attack to take back the Tihama coast.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If the Giants Brigades remain geographically isolated in Aden, what operational alternatives exist for the coalition to secure the Bab al-Mandab Strait against Houthi forces occupying the high ground around Mocha?

It looks like the coalition will have to lean more on their naval task forces, like Combined Task Force 153, to keep watch at sea. But if the Giants Brigades can’t help from land and knock out the Houthi coastal guns near Mocha, the ships will be sitting ducks for shore-launched missiles. In my view, just blocking the sea won’t be enough. The coalition needs a land campaign to take back the Tihama coast if they want to secure the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

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