Introduction: The Gulf at War

IISS

The 2026 US–Israel war with Iran has directly disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, forcing Gulf states to re-evaluate their long-standing security architectures. Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates face severe economic friction as Iranian military retaliation targets regional energy and logistics infrastructure.

Historically reliant on forward US military presence and global capital integration, these nations previously operated under the assumption that their central role in global supply chains made them strategically indispensable. This assumption has now fractured. In response, regional governments are taking emergency steps to fortify critical supply lines and sustain national endurance. Measures include expanding the capacity of overland bypass infrastructure, acquiring specialized counter-uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) systems, and dispersing planned infrastructure development away from vulnerable coastal maritime corridors. Long-term stability will now depend on their ability to reconfigure alliance structures, protect key industrial assets, and absorb sustained economic shocks.

Comment

Maritime denial in the Strait of Hormuz exposes the structural throughput limits of regional overland energy bypass corridors. While infrastructure such as Saudi Arabia's East-West Crude Oil Pipeline provides alternative transit to Yanbu on the Red Sea, its maximum daily capacity cannot absorb the volume normally routed through the Persian Gulf. Precision strikes targeting coastal pumping stations and storage terminals demonstrate that terrestrial distribution nodes suffer from high operational vulnerability during anti-access campaigns.

Consequently, operational endurance during sea-line denial shifts from crude extraction capacity to redundant distribution logistics. Sustaining export endurance through secondary nodes like the Habshan–Fujairah pipeline shifts security requirements from offshore maritime patrol to static facility air defence. Unmitigated vulnerabilities at overland terminals like Fujairah leave hydrocarbon stockpiles stranded at inland gathering centers, invalidating strategic export projections.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, does overland capacity via the Habshan–Fujairah pipeline provide sufficient sustainment for regional export continuity, or do terrestrial terminal vulnerabilities create an insurmountable logistical bottleneck?

The available evidence indicates that overland bypass infrastructure offers only partial mitigation rather than a full operational substitute during prolonged sea-line interdiction. While pipelines like the East-West line redirect significant volume, throughput limits and static terminal vulnerabilities at ports like Fujairah constrain total export capacity. My assessment is that long-term logistical sustainment will ultimately depend on multi-layered point defences around key pumping nodes rather than pipeline expansion alone.

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