Netanyahu and Eisenkot face difficult paths to power as neither set to win majority

BBC News | Yolande Knell

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot face severe parliamentary deadlocks following a general election that left both major political blocs short of a 61-seat majority. Turnout surpassed 77%, with Netanyahu’s Likud party leading early counts, yet remaining dependent on ultra-nationalist partners. Eisenkot’s opposition Yashar party similarly lacks a direct path to power without aligning with Arab-majority parties like Ra'am.

This systemic deadlock persists despite the regional conflicts triggered by the 7 October 2023 Hamas attacks. High volumes of absentee military ballots remain uncounted, leaving official coalition options unresolved. Neither leader can easily command the 120-seat Knesset without contentious political concessions. Ideological fractures over liberal judicial norms and hardline religious nationalism continue to divide the electorate. The country faces prolonged political instability. If coalition negotiations fail within six weeks, Isaac Herzog may oversee another election cycle, leaving Netanyahu’s administration in a caretaker capacity without legislative authority.

Comment

The election outcome reveals a core strategic trade-off facing Israel's political opposition between electoral legitimacy and parliamentary arithmetic. Former army chief Gadi Eisenkot’s reluctance to formalise an alignment with Mansour Abbas’s Ra'am list protects his Yashar party from right-wing backlash but deprives the bloc of a clear path to a 61-seat Knesset majority. This dynamic reproduces the operational friction that constrained the short-lived Bennett-Lapid coalition in 2021.

A second-order consequence of relying on Ra'am for parliamentary confidence is the operational constraint it imposes on executive decision-making during crisis response. Any future administration dependent on Arab-majority lists would face immediate internal disruption over security operations in the West Bank or budget allocations to Arab municipalities. Consequently, Yashar's executive coherence during active IDF operations would remain vulnerable to coalition fragmentation.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If Eisenkot's Yashar party is forced into a working arrangement with Mansour Abbas's Ra'am list to achieve a Knesset majority, which factor ultimately breaks first: executive consensus on IDF security actions or the domestic legitimacy of the change bloc?

The available evidence points toward internal consensus collapsing before broader public legitimacy does, as demonstrated by the rapid dissolution of the Bennett-Lapid government over domestic security legislation. While Ra'am proved willing to compromise on municipal economic allocations, operational escalations involving IDF forces consistently strained coalition unity. My assessment is that Yashar would face identical structural friction, rendering any such arrangement inherently temporary during active regional hostilities.

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