The Coming Era of Undersea Anarchy

Foreign Policy | Elisabeth Braw

Turkey has challenged the construction of the Great Sea Interconnector, an European Union-funded undersea electricity cable designed to link the power grids of Greece, Cyprus, and Israel. Ankara demands that survey vessels submit written notifications before conducting operations in contested Eastern Mediterranean waters. Greece warned that any attempt by Turkey to obstruct the cable project would trigger an operational response.

The dispute reflects Ankara's persistent rejection of the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, reinforced by its bilateral maritime boundary agreement with Libya. Cable laying requires legal certainty. Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar proposed a gas pipeline via northern Cyprus to supply power to the entire island instead. Coastal states increasingly assert unilateral jurisdiction over maritime transit routes and seabed assets. China demands cable installation permits within its South China Sea claims, while United States policy permits unilateral offshore mining in international waters.

Comment

Subsea infrastructure development relies on commercial cable-laying fleets whose operational thresholds are dictated by marine underwriting standards rather than naval capability. Specialized deepwater survey ships, such as the Abeille Marengo, operate under commercial charter terms that prohibit deployment into contested waters subject to conflicting maritime notifications. Naval escort commitments by the Hellenic Navy cannot mitigate the financial risk of hull insurance revocation or charter cancellation when sovereign states issue counter-notices.

The friction stems from the scarcity of high-capacity dynamic-positioning cable vessels capable of operating at depths exceeding 2,000 metres across the Mediterranean basin. Marine insurers participating in the Lloyd's Market Association Joint War Committee routinely alter coverage conditions when contested maritime claims generate operational friction. Consequently, charter operators servicing the Great Sea Interconnector will abort seabed surveys at the first sign of Turkish naval interdiction.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If commercial underwriters under the Lloyd's Market Association refuse war-risk coverage for survey vessels like the Abeille Marengo, which mechanism offers a viable alternative to secure deepwater infrastructure projects in contested waters?

The pattern suggests state-backed indemnity frameworks or direct naval chartering could temporarily absorb financial risks that private underwriters refuse to carry. However, sovereign guarantees fail to solve the underlying operational friction if host navies physically intercept survey ships. The trajectory indicates that without bilateral maritime boundary consensus, state indemnities merely shift commercial risk into direct inter-state naval standoff.

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